Now all we need is confirmation the FDA has approved our Nuvaring generic and we can sit back, or strap in, to $1?
Nuvaring worth about ~$1.1b USD. If we're the first generic to the market, i reckon we can take about 30-40% (obviously reducing price and therefore that $1.1b market, but still, even a 20-40% price reduction isn't bad), if we're 2nd-3rd, probably 10-15-20%.
The last time we received FDA approval i think i counted 6-7-8 weeks between approval and roll-out. The company said they expect approval this CY. That means a sustained and substantial growth rate is on our doorstep for years to come.
Just a guess, but~ $525m in sales last year. Nuvaring CY20 should add a couple hundred million to that, if we're first to market, probably only $100-$200m if we're second. Then comes Novel sales CY21...... And what was the worst case, ~$342m/PA...... Now add the 'strong growth' in MCS, women's health divisions and specialty brands (double digits right?), an improving generic market - as the competition is exposed for a number of questionable business practices - and, well.... This rally really is just beginning.
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