MYX 15.1% $5.10 mayne pharma group limited

Is MYX a bargain, page-36

  1. 6,365 Posts.
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    Why because of legal and Generic drug pricing reasons.

    My investment thesis on MYX from a few quarters back below. Most of which are still true even though SP might not look like it is.

    1. Meds is a necessity. I like businesses that can essentially run themselves and have clear competitive advantages. The "advantage" of the healthcare is that consumers don't have control over when they get sick or what ailment they have. Illness doesn't care about inflation, recessions, or politics. It means there's always steady to growing demand for medicines.

    2. Even though generic pricing has been a bit weaker in recent quarters and analysts have cautioned it could remain that way for a few more quarters, the overall trend in the industry is a push toward higher generic-drug usage. As brand-name drugs move higher in price, consumers, insurers, and physicians will likely push for broader generic-drug use.According to QuintilesIMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, generic drugs are expected to total 91% to 92% of all prescriptions written by the turn of the decade, up from 88% in 2015. Between limited exclusivity for brand-name therapies and price inflation, volume alone can make MYX a long-term winner. Let's not also forget that longevity has increased in nearly all countries around the world. As access to medical care improves, the market for prescription medicines as both treatment and maintenance therapies should rapidly grow.

    3. There's nothing specific in the product portfolio or pipeline of MYX that's going to require me to sit on the edge of my seat and wait for clinical trial data. That isn't to say I would not have a look at MYX pipeline a few times a year, so much as that he won't have to read each and every clinical update.

    4. The company is healthfully cash flow positive. Despite all of its SP and market expectation woes MYX is cash flow positive. In other words, the dire straits that MYX (along with the other drug manufacturers) was deemed to be in by Wall Street may have been overstated. MYX has more than enough capital to continue paying down debt and advancing its generic and exclusive drug portfolio.

    6. I love a turnaround story and so does Warren...Last but not least, let's not overlook the fact that Buffett has historically loved a good turnaround story from time to time. For example, back in 2011, Berkshire Hathaway invested $5 billion in the struggling Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), which was a far cry from the usual set-it-and-forget-it business he usually buys. However, Bank of America did have a lot going for it, including a well-known brand, a lot of customers, and huge market share in the United States. When Buffett exercised his Bank of America warrants in 2017, his bet netted about $12 billion in profit when all was said and done.While Teva is unlikely to make Buffett anywhere near that amount, he likely sees a company with strong generic market share that's complemented by high-margin brand-name products. He probably also believes that generic pricing power will return given the aforementioned demand growth expected from generics over the long run.All things considered, Teva checks off a lot of the boxes that Buffett would look for in an investment even if he is currently in the red with it.... 300m usd down on the damn thing!

 
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