Is Rome burning, page-89

Cato - What can anyone make out of the Novartis deal apart from it was going to be expensive, it is cutting edge science, and Novartis will never explain why they decided against it, I bet least of all not to MSB. Did you know there was a rumour that Audi had purchased the entire Mclaren auto group.... but they didn't. That doesn't mean that Mclaren make bad cars, or that they are going bankrupt, it's just something that happened and we will never know why on that front either.

The peculiarity of the Covid ARDS trial, was that dexamethazone ..... Novartis own product, had a higher mortality rate than the control arm.
Now dexamethazone is standard of care, but in MSB trial more people died that received it than didn't. At the time I wondered what that meant. Jumping in with a partner that has just proven through a randomised placebo controlled double blind trial, that your drug increased the mortality rate in ventliated patients......would it change things..... we will never know.

What we do know is the topline results, and that there was a HUGE mortality reduction in under 65's, just like the data the company had for under 65's in the GvHD trial. That's what I know... I'm not about to re-think MSB somehow miraculously did manage to jag 4 x null hypothesis outcomes. All the evidence, the CHF biomarkers that correlate to reduction of heart attacks / strokes - match the proposed MOA. For me the evidence today is overwhelming in favour of efficacy, and now you have more evidence coming through from the Crohns trial..... a 5th null hgypothesis jagged? or is it working ?

That said - today's SP is reflective of nothing. I cannot pick the bottom, all I can do is average down for the moment - having convinced myself the day will come, but I don't know which day. CHF could be recommended for accelerated approval tomorrow.... the next day OTAT may have accepted MSB's remedy for the CRL and accept a resubmission. Knowing my luck I would sell the day before and then buy back in at a premium.

Maybe you should should re-think your opinion, if you are so confident that Novartis walking as a " sign" of things to come....... go short ?

If not - then you are really not that confident about it at all, just speculating what if based on gut feel.