is rudd a one term wonder

Conventional wisdom is Labor will easily win the next election over a shellshocked opposition, but I'm not so sure.

What if...

- Oil prices continue to rise, driving up the cost of fuel and goods (through increased delivery costs).

- Inflation in China continues to gather pace, flowing into prices for everything they export to us.

- The reserve bank reacts by lifting interest rates to tackle inflation.

- Fuel and import prices continue to rise regardless; rents go up because landlords pass on the interest rate rises, driving inflation further.

- Rudd and co honestly tell "working families" there's nothing they can do about the oil price, or global conditions, or rising interest rates.

- The Liberals promise to do something irresponsible (like cutting the fuel excise) and remind people about the good old days when everything was smooth sailing - before a less experienced lot got in.

- Kevin 11 in deep trouble.

Any thoughts?