Is shorting this a no brainer?, page-1259

both you and John Wick talk as if the market is rational.

what the market is telling me is that they dont expect the NPAT to grow as it has in the past and there are know real risk in the economy which may impact the bottom line.

You say when int rates rise - well the RBA has no intention of raising for a while so lets just say they dont raise for a year or more then what youre saying is CBA is just going to be in aholding pattern until things improve then everyone jumps on board.

Theres no doubt that div yield is nice and no doubt CBA receives support from all the passive funds - but a passive fund by nature must keep the exact mrk cap percentages so when cba goes from 96 down to 60 well that mrk cap shrinks so does the % of CBA of the overall market thus on rebalancing do you think the funds sell or buy cba??

Thats one of the issues with passive funds - then you have the shorters then the active funds - who are looking at comparative returns to other banks like nab or boq (not saying they better or worse here) so its not as simply as saying CBA making nice profits and nice divs - when momentum takes over you can really have a run these days both to upside and to downside.

A week ago we had all the people saying never go under 70 well it has now and to say no chance of going under 60 when thats only 10% away is a bit odd - you might end up being right I just think thats a big call when we nearly at 66$ and we have eofy coming up