Is shorting this a no brainer?, page-696

I've avoided the bragging and the "I told you so" post Huninni but given that you've directly asked me let me mansplain the situation to you again.

As I correctly predicted CBA would hit $77 and below in a "short" period of time. I sold my shorts for a nice profit at around $76.80 as I said I would.

And look at where the price is now - a mere $74 and falling like a lead balloon.

You've shown that you have absolutely underestimated the impact that CBA's scandals would have on its share price, like many others on this forum. You're also overlooking that CBA have really done very little in response to its scandals, which will not be looked upon well by the Royal Commission. You're also ignorant to the effects that an imminent downturn in the residential property market will have on CBA's loan books. The downturn in the property market is already now evident (and well overdue, meaning it's got a long way to go).

The arguments that I keep hearing to support CBA despite its scandals are ridiculous... "there are so many people invested in CBA through their super that the regulators wouldn't dare cause damage to CBA" etc etc are delusional. Do you think that huge banks around the world (e.g. Barclays) were spared fines for the same logic? They are bigger than CBA and their fines would have affected any pension funds invested in them massively.

When breaches of regulation happen fines will be issued. CBA will have no exception, especially given that the board cowardly did not fire crooked Narev and passively let his underling take the role of CEO instead of bringing in an external game changer.

CBA have hugely underestimated the fines that they will get in their most recent announcement regarding the reserves that they've allocated for this (from memory something like a mere $300 million). The maximum fines that could be thrown at CBA would total cca $1 billion and probably more given the most recent news about interest rate rigging (which alone was a huge issue for Barclays in the UK). Even a mere 10% of this maximum amount is roughly what CBA's market cap is.

Using logic, common sense and experience of the way banks were penalised for similar scandals globally it is easy to see that CBA's share price will continue to fall. Or one can use their imagination and happy thoughts, like Huninni.

I've been on this forum trying to explain this since the news broke of the scandals at cca $84. It's now $74. And I'm telling you all now that this has a long way to go down from here for some of the issues that I mention above.