Chucke, I previously said I would not post again but have done so on one occassion a few days ago. I will again as a point of clarification. Please forget the Australian gas market comparisons - KAR, MEO and some of the CSG aspirants (ESG, Bow etc). The US gas market situation is vastly different. Marion is trying to find a suitor in an environment of overproduction and gas prices not seen since 2002. It is a major reason why the IRR was lower - it's about economically recoverable reserves and at these prices, the IRR is telling us that 240bcf (1 and 2P) can be produced economically.
In this game, production is critical. I worked at Devon and returned in 2006. I still have contacts there and be assured that Marion's attractiveness will be greatly enhanced if they can become a producer. It is my understanding that this is probably happening at the moment and announcements could be made within the week or two. Different story 12-18 months ago when a sale on reserves alone would be made effortlessly. A final point. I previously predicted an offer within 15-21 days. As I suggested then it was my prediction based on company announcements (reading between the lines) and nothing to do with my recent get together with some ex work mates from Devon.
A concluding comment. The US gas market is certainly operating in a tough environment which has a material impact on MAE. Whether MAE is sold or not is a function of economics. At Devon (and any other producer) the decision of whether to acquire or continue drilling is a monetary and strategic consideration (not rocket science as I'm stating the bleeding obvious). If MAE can stabilise production, coupled with proven reserves (which will increase as gas prices improve over time), then the cost/benefit analysis back at Devon, or Questar or Bill Barrett etc is an analysis of continued drilling or acquiring a know producer with certified reserves. I've always said that any buyer will be in the general vicinity, which again is a no brainer because MAE would be an automatic fit.
Take care, Red2
Chucke, I previously said I would not post again but have done...
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