Is the big one still coming?

Originally posted by alonso: ↑

Probably. My gut feeling is more than probably. There is so much imbalance, so much distortion.

"The big issue across Western Economies remains consumption – how much can consumers actually buy after their disposable incomes have been slashed by energy price inflation, higher taxation, inflation and low wages – the latter being a consequence of the increasing “financialisation”, aka greed, of corporates to pay workers less to make bosses richer. (That’s the reality of the last 20 years; bosses got insanely rich and higher paid. Workers got poorer.)
When consumers can’t consume because all their income is consumed by higher rents, paying of credit cards, taxes, and dismal jobs… that’s when to worry. That time is now. Crashing consumption is the issue we haven’t yet seen on company earnings – yet.""

https://morningporridge.com/blog/investments/markets/shaken-not-stirred-markets-dust-themselves-off-for-how-long/

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IMO the spectre of a dramatic drop in consumerism
is merely s symptom of the structural macro economic
problems in the West.

Western economies since the GFC have been kept out
of recession by taking on mountains of debt led by the USA.
Aus has taken on $1.5 Trillion of debt since the GFC# with
Household and Personal Debt increasing by a similar rate.

Due to us knocking back China's BRI & then declaring China as our #1
enemy , IMO, China will bide its time to teach us a lesson in Geopolitics:
IE: When the time is right China will pull the pin on our exports (30% go to China)
which will, IMO, be the catalyst for the housing bubble burst and hey presto,
we'll then see how good a friend the US really is.

No doubt then the US Hedge funds will be in like Flynn
picking up our remaining assets for 2 bob!

#If we had taken $150 Billion a year out of our economy in tax since the GFC
rather than accruing debt at that rate we would have been in economic strife
a few times in the interim . But of course , like personal debt, sovereign debt will have to be
paid down sooner or later and there is no sign at present that that can be done, IMO.
In the interim our debt is growing with interest now topping 4% on Gov 10 year bonds.