is the force strong within bly?

My predictions for BLY, BASED ON CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS (so at least to the end of the year).

1. Continued falling in the SP (<.50c). I do agree with Oracleyoda, that it won’t go to zero, but it may go close. May the Force be with you Oracleyoda, wise council to a young Padwan.

2. Further changes within the board.

3. Capital raising (within the next 4 to 6 weeks), possibly an announcement next week, at or just after the AGM. I’d say feverish work is being done now to get corporate support and before further falls in the SP.

4. Debt refinancing. Has to be done if the continued slide in turnover is maintained. Obliviously before they lose totally support of their lenders and any breaches in their lending agreements. Watch their loan facility increase, especially if they don’t comment on it. Remember they have less than ? of it left (on that, I laughed when they said that they would use this debt increase to fund further acquisitions. Go buy DTQ with 35 rigs and a market cap of less than $3m – bargain? Not!)

5. Not a TO target, therefore a possible breakup. Long shot I know, but as a complete package, it’s not attractive to buy, so I thought I’d put that in. Not convinced that the BLY culture is that progressive to do it and it would certainly signal to all hopeful investors, just how bad things actually are. Comes back to Board changes and strong leadership.

6. Significant restructuring. Very expensive to implement but tied in with a capital raising, this would have to be done. It’s already been announced that it started, but holes have to be plugged, time is of the importance and it’s hard to adjust quickly, being so big.


For those of you that bought in last year at the $1.20 mark, I came across this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDpPlrHgquM