Hi @ywtoh, Yes, snowball is the perfect word. I'm thinking that...

Hi @ywtoh,

Yes, snowball is the perfect word. I'm thinking that when our partners' MABR successes reach a small critical mass (over 'n' installs) the tech will prove too compelling for other companies and the government to ignore. Dissemination of knowledge and calls for research into applications through official government channels will follow (not visible yet apart for disparate chatter) and then the revenue will start to flow. The question is when do we reach 'n'? Some thoughts below:

Continuing on from my last post (and the link between research and MBR growth), it's interesting to note that the growth in MBR installations in China was as strongly correlated with patent applications over the same 10 year period (2007-2017) as with the research papers. The text below, and accompanying graph, appeared in the publication "Membrane Bioreactor in China: A Critical Review (International Journal of Membrane Science and Technology, 2015, 2, 29-47)" and further explores the idea:

"The increasing number of international MBR patents (2005-2015) has completely revolutionized the prospect of MBR technological application in China as shown in Figure 2 (graph below).
This is clearly an indication of the involvement of highly trained and qualified personnel contributing their quota to the development of MBR technology. Many of these projects were initiated by the China Ministry of Science and Technology under the “Five-year-plans”.
Starting from year 2006, less than 20 Chinese MBR patents were available. At this time, the number of MBR researchers began increasing and government contribution to the MBR industry amplified. Also, the number of available private and government owned companies operating full-scale MBR processes were on the rise. After that period, a geometric increase in patented publications was witnessed, reaching a total number of about 250 at the end of 2013."

Keeping track of patent data for MABR might be useful to foreshadow MABR revenue/install growth over the next 10 years and give a reasonable guide to the maturity of the MABR market. But where are we now? How many MABR patents have been published? A Google Patents search for "membrane aerated biofilm reactor" reveals 33 results (see link below). I believe that it will prove instructive that the number of MABR patents in 2017 (33), like the total revenue (from my post yesterday), roughly matches MBR developments in 2006 (20).

I'm very bullish on the uptake of MABR in China over the next ten years and the role of Fluence in that roll-out. I believe that the actual number of commercial MABR installs that eventuated for Fluence over 2017 (despite disappointing many SH) was the only realistic outcome possible; hockey stick growth from day 1, or 2 or even day 600 was and is a pipe dream. I believe it is going to be a slow burn through CY18FY19 before we start to see the real traction begin, much like with MBR tech from 2006-2008. Of course the drivers behind the rise of MBR through those years is unique to that time; but (again in my opinion) the uptake of MABR technology (both decentralised and green/brown-field) will be no less inevitable over the next 5 years given the confluence of compelling factors this time around. With continuing successful case studies and positive performance data it should only be a matter of time; and the growth predicated by research papers/ patents published and government policies relating specifically to MABR- all of which it's worth keeping a close eye on.
All imo.

https://patents.google.com/?q="membrane aerated biofilm reactor"&oq="membrane aerated biofilm reactor"&sort=new

Fluence's published patent (China) http://www.google.com/patents/CN107207299A?cl=zh