is the gold bull market over?

Is this question as silly as it sounds?

Let's have a think about it.

Back in March 2008 when gold first went over US$1000 if you were then told what was going to happen by April 2009 - such as major financial collapses, rescues left right and centre involving hundreds of billions of dollars, interest rates dropping to zero and quantitative easing (printing money) you would have assumed that gold would be way over US$1000 by now.

If someone told you what was going to happen but also added that gold would be below US$900 in April 2009 you would have thought they had no idea.

Did you notice that this year gold has made a lower high over US$1000. Is it possible that gold is now heading for a lower low?

Now let's look at gold shares.

Far from showing strength when gold went over US$1000 this year it can easily be argued that gold shares were telling us gold was going to be sold down because the major gold share indices were something like 30% plus below what they were when gold hit US$1000 in 2008. And on top of that costs for producers had come right down.

No one rings a bell at the top.

If a bell was rung, should it have been rung in March 2008?