is the gold bull over?, page-9

I expect gold to fall further, perhaps to the low 1200's, where it will consolidate then bounce.

There was immense trading below this level (i.e. post GFC) where this price range should be considered a base.

If you look at the trading pattern of the last few years post 1900 high, it would not be uncanny to observe the similarities with the post GFC period (although over a longer timeframe). I can see a final 'capitualtion' to the lower 1200's where it will recover.

Coincidently I als osee the DOW reaching an all time high during this period (next 6 weeks) followed by a correction. Who knows if it will be a savage correction or not but a correction none the less.

Longer term the price of gold can only fall as far as its cost to produce plus or minus a wobble or two. That cost is now quite high and is likely to be in the same range as the lower target I indicated above.

In response to SP I have this analogy.

Take the POG and equivocate it to the price of an equity in a listed company. In 2001 it was say 20c. IN 2011 it was $1.90 andd now it is a $1.20. Is this sort of price action parabolic? I think not, in fact the price action is quite mundane.

GC