Because of a bad cut I left the first Paragraph out in first post.
It looks like the Lamp and licensing will be OK. I have said this consistently for many months. I will admit that AL’s press conference shook my conviction. I still felt overall that it would be fine. I posted this 3 days ago in Post #:35969537..
I do agree Market timing is very hard. If you try to be precise it is nearly imposable. If you follow my posts I started Selling my growth stocks in January ’18. I sold my Lynas last week of May first week of June. I think it has been higher than my sell price more days than lower since then. I have tracked how I would do if I had not made the change by setting up multiple accounts in Quicken. (this is whole portfolio Lynas has had a very very small impact) On a yearly basis I am down less than 2.5% % and that includes fees. I suspect that it will be less than 2.0% at end of October because many Quarterly dividends will be credited in October. Sensible investing to prepare for it has not cost me much. I have not put cash in a mattress. I have said many times I never bottom fish. When stocks fall there are many false bottoms. I also never average down. Short term I am waiting for Q report. If it is as good as some people claim Then I have some serious thinking to do because REO prices had much lower impact than I thought, I have to readjust. Longer term I am watching REO prices. As I posted before, the two step auto tariff 10% already and 25% Jan 1 makes short term prediction of auto demand hard. Will manufactures cut back or try to bring in some last minute supplies to avoid the Jan 1 increase. Prices of all four REO Elements Nd, Pr, La, Ce, went down March to end of July, Flat since then. Any solid sign of them going up and I may buy back The stock slide was triggered by AL releasing a defensive document. Many people assumed that this meant something and sold or shorted ( shorts were a big part of Mondays, 10/1 Slide not much after that). This just tells me that any price regardless if it is $1.60 or $2.10 is not on a good footing. I suspect we will go above $2.00 this week. Then the following week the Q1 should be released, based on history. Activity of last two weeks tell me not to touch this stock based on price. Only something like REO prices changing will cause me to react.
I disagree with you on one point and that is that a down turn has been predicted for 3 years. I think it has been ten. There were predictions even before banking crisis was over it would go deeper, we would relapse shortly. Every day since then including to day I can find articles that say it is a new economy and will go up for ever. It is a shame and we will fall dramatically. What is important is who is saying it and what is the supporting data. That is why I gave this link. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...inancial-crash-says-imf/ar-BBNSu3J?li=BBnb7Kz and this one which is a little more biased but has some good logic behind opinions http://time.com/money/5235032/just-...t-will-crash-according-to-5-famous-investors/
Do what you want. Just trying to foster lots of thinking not convince anyone to sell or buy.
LYC Price at posting:
$1.79 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)