Assuming everything goes well then EagleView converts the CN to 10% ownership. A takeover bid at that point would be, at a guess, at least double the 6c/share price they converted at, or a valuation of around $100m. That's not exactly pocket change to EagleView who were at one point valued at US$650m by Verisk.
Supposing that EagleView takes further convincing and waits for all of the options to convert as well that means SFI is taking in >US$20m/year in revenue and on the basis that they won't need much in the way of sales & marketing a good chunk of that should fall through to the bottom line. Suppose their costs stay at around AU$8m/year we'd be looking at almost AU$20m profit (+/- exchange rate).
It'd be hard to see the market valuing SFI less than $500m if they're generating $20m profit. I would think this is too expensive for EagleView.
Hence the likely outcomes if things go well is either EagleView goes for acquisition sooner rather than later, or just retains their blocking stake (19.9% would make it hard for anyone else to acquire SFI).
So short term (next 12 months) risk is high. If things go well EagleView will likely make an acquisition offer. But if things don't go to plan then SFI could require further capital raising and/or be caught without an immediate sales strategy.
Definitely worth keeping an eye on though -- the potential returns once this risk period is passed (or close to passing) would likely be significant.
