You're just the next in line of HC users that disappears when your gambler's fallacy thesis - what you call 'trading probability' fails.
We miss KKW and his imaginary shorts that he couldn't do correct maths on. You'll fill that void for the next leg up.
What's more likely? A favourable AUSTRAC announcement or the minuscule dilution from APT honouring their past SPP agreement which was already known to the market in the previous AGM?
Granted, I've noticed a lot of people don't seem to read a lot of these announcements here - as indicated by the bloke I had to tell when the paperwork is being mailed out...not even a cursory glance...and are incredulous at a 'suprise' raise which was in fact not a suprise...it was always going to happen, after conclusion of their audit, as they have disclosed numerous times.