Is the SPP about to push the SP off a cliff???, page-5

  1. 1,305 Posts.
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    Great analysis. Appreciate the effort. I won't suggest anything to with other SPP on other stocks, however my view on this situation is below for comment.

    The major difference (& hardest to factor) is that previous SPP were run in conjunction with institutional capital raisings (don't forget the institutional capital raising - 10x as big as the SPP - in June was at the same price as the current SPP being offered at & was to run in conjunction). You are also seeing today's price at a far more significant premium to the raising price as June announcement & most recent raising at $28.00. Your retracement after raising as speculated above has already occurred in my view - in the period after the June raising.

    Personally, I think the biggest chance of a retrace towards the SPP price is a major change in sentiment (a la prior to Xmas last year). This may happen if any of the following happens -
    APT announcement missing growth forecasts - not sure there will even be an announcement between now & SPP close - so this risk would appear to be minor - though becomes more significant towards HY results in Feb.
    US & China halt trade talks
    Jeremy Corbyn is elected in Britain
    Australian GDP inputs for the current quarter significantly deteriorate

    If there are further positive changes to sentiment, I believe this is one of the greatest arbitrage opportunities for retail holders we will see, not forgetting holders have until early-mid Jan to make a decision & can sell their entitlement (or matching holding as soon as allocated if price is still above SPP).
 
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