have just noticed that the gold price has grown at rate of about 20% per year for the last 9 years $250 to $1084
according to faber's definition a massive bubble has emerged
check out this his definition....
How can you judge whether there is a
bubble somewhere or not?
Well, there is a simple criteria. What
is not sustainable in the long run is a
bubble period. Let's say you have a
global economy that increases by 3% in
real terms and an inflation of 2%, thus a
nominal GDP of 5%. If then something
goes up by 20% - be sure that there is
a bubble (laughing)! The rule is, nothing
can grow ad infinitum at a higher rate
than nominal GDP. Neither corporate
profits, nor equities. I conceive that some
asset prices like a Picasso painting appreciate
more than nominal GDP, but not
all assets. This simply doesn't add up. I
don't really think you need to be a genius
to see a bubble.
Marc Faber
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/marketcommentary/download/CONT_2008_12_23_Marc%20Faber%20The%20Bridge.pdf
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