Shedlock has proven to be one of the most astute commentators on this crisis and has recently written a great summary with some historical content (a la ctndale)
I'm in the crash camp (which could very well trash gold shares) ..with my popcorn too (: ....and its great to read something easy understood on where we are, especially as relates to investing in AUD FI or Treasuries
to summarise some of the points that resonated with me:
" Still others insist than in the fiat world we are in, the web is so tangled between money and credit that this mess is not even worth bothering to figure out. Those folks simply hold gold and wait for "The Crash".
It is complete silliness to think the Fed is in control of (or can even properly measure) prices, especially asset prices. ...thus a focus on prices is misguided
Practically speaking we are in deflation by many measures of credit, as well as symptoms such as treasury yields, falling home prices, the CPI, rents, credit card rates and usage, etc, while those looking only at Money TMS (or even money AMS) say we are not in deflation and never will be.
In my opinion, it is very likely new all time lows in the 10-year treasury yield and 30-year long bond are coming up.
Right now, I still expect the US to slip in and out of deflation and recession for years to come just as happened in Japan.
You can choose to call this environment "inflation" or "stagflation" if you want. No one can stop you. However, practically speaking, there is far more "stag" than "flation" and the proper prefix is still "de".
