Guys,I dont think you're using the correct metric for...

  1. 1,252 Posts.
    Guys,
    I dont think you're using the correct metric for determining a gold price bubble. Sure, measured GDP may be in the 2%-5% range. But money supply growth has been much, much greater than that, something like 10%? 15%? In some countries, its 25%. In other words, credit growth has far outstripped GDP growth.

    If gold is re-asserting itself as a monetary metal, then I believe its growth rate in fiat dollar terms will reflect the growth in money supply rather than GDP.

    If this is true then it means the nominal gold price will fall in a reduced money-supply scenario as well. But it will retain its purchasing power even though its nominal price is falling (Whatever 'purchasing power' is. Being a subjective concept, you will need to work out whats important to you & see if its true. In my case, its houses).

    All very good in theory. But when you throw in a credit-stress situation, then I reckon you will see spikes up & down in the gold price as investors panic in & out of it, not knowing what the hell is going on. I reckon we're seeing that now.
 
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