is there any upside left in gmg?, page-20

Hi CJC73

I know the esap shares well as i also had a close relative who worked for many years at Goodman up until last year. The esap shares are causing a lot of heartache to many staff and ex staff so I can understand your situation.

I tend to think the shares will trade sideways for the next 12 months. My guess would be

12 months 70c
24 months 80c
36 months $1

The Hong Kong development which i think is about $400m should earn something decent in 2012 as I assume they will flip this into the HK trust and make some profits and fees. You could assume with lead times there should be other developments coming through also in years 2 and 3. Who knows maybe if investors think the market has gone past the bottom this year sometime it may be that money might come back for new funds to be launched which as you have said before earns development profits and fees when they flip them into these vehicles.

To get to $1 they would need to

1) Lift EPS from current estimate of approx 5.7c undiluted (5.2c diluted)which is $300m profit by at least 60% plus.

2)Current payout for FY10 is expected at 3.4c (60% of 5.7c). This could be lifted in future years to say 70% or 75% with a more stable outlook.

3)So maybe combine 60% increase in earnings off a very low base year in 2010 (no development profit year) to say 2012 year at 8.3c diluted and 75% payout ratio would mean 6.2c DPS so around $1 is possible.

Just my thoughts.