First time poster, long-term lurker on HC. Thanks to the forum regulars for their entertaining thoughts, commentary and wisdom.
The posts here have been understandably about the trading suspension but I’m interested in discussing the Lakes' future and whether the $0.0008/share offer and a $32M-$34M market capitalisation is an appealing offer.
Nangwarry
-What’s not to like about this project? The successful flow test and the on-going commercialisation/engineering design work gives me warm fuzzy feelings. The timeline for this project (pg 29 of the prospectus) looks realistic too.
Wellesley-2
-Good to see Lakes’ announced the well will be spudded in January 2022.
-The timeline for the project looks optimistic. Milestones include gas sales agreement, gas processing agreement and design/procurement/construct of a flow-line and tie-ins to neighbouring gathering systems. In the 5/1/22 announcement on Wellesley-2 there is no mention of long-lead items and if these are not ordered then income producing within 6 months will not happen.
-Prospective volume of 41 Bcf / or about 45 PJ
Wombat-5 and Otway-1
-Again in my view the timelines for both these projects are overly optimistic and unworkable.
-Is anyone aware of any onshore wells being approved under the new Victorian petroleum regs? The Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions / Earth Resources will be navigating the new regs and I suspect approvals will be difficult and time consuming and neither project will be approved by end of FY22.
-Commercialisation/infrastructure of Otway-1 will likely take longer than 3 months. Gas sales agreements, gas processing agreements and design/procurement/construct of surface facilities will all take significantly longer than this.
-In my view these projects will not be income producing (assuming economic discoveries) until 2H FY24 or 1H FY25.
A market cap of $32M post capital raising feels steep considering Lakes’ overzealous timeline optimism and unproven track record - what are your thoughts?
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Is there value at $34M market cap?
First time poster, long-term lurker on HC. Thanks to the forum...
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