down. Maybe there won't be any evidence over the next few weeks, but more likely over the next few months. It takes a while for the market to re-establish its direction and the battle between the bulls and bears would be strong. If we dip slightly below 10,000 and go back up I won't be that convinced unless we make a higher high.
But if the Dow goes to 9000 or slightly below and then gets back over 10,000 then I would take that as a very good omen and a clearer picture that we're heading in the right direction, and without stimulus.
This is the first time in over a year that I've turned negative in the market. Even during our short correction in October I've tried to remain positive. While many were fearful of bank stocks a year ago I saw the opportunity to get some exposure. So let's put it bluntly - the momentum has stopped going upwards and the negative talk is starting to re-appear again. The market is reluctant to rally and is quick to fall on bad news.
A year ago from March we had the opposite - there was still bad news but the market barely cared any more. So much selling had been done going into March that no one was scared of Dracula any more. Most of the big sellers had left the scene for good!
Now I see it that most of the big buyers have gone away for the while as profit taking is having a big impact which may gain some strong selling momentum.
So for me it's down. There's no solid reason for me to be right but there's plenty of reasons for the market to take a big breather.
As always it's you call and each to their own. Good luck all.
