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Thanks for your calcs Warnie. May not entirely agree with you...

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brassmad

1,563 Posts.

21/02/17

13:49

Post #: 22779725
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Originally posted by Warnie ↑

Yes it's hard to know for sure.
I'll have a measly stab at it for you using the 50/50 scenario:

Using AUD figures:
At a guess let's say $250 to manufacture and deliver per Rova.

Sale price $399 AUD less $250 cost
= $150 gross profit
Say they do go 50/50 profit split (remember IOT also have a loan to AEE albeit no anns at to what the terms are between the two, esp for the initial 40,000 drones).

= $75 profit
**Forecast....$25m revenue for rest of calendar year (10 months)
= $30m for 12 months/$399 = 75,000
= Rovas sold at 6250 per month/208 per day for 12 months

75,000 x $75 profit share
= $5.6m Gross profit for 12 months

+ 40,000 drones already prepaid for at $250 = $10m returned to IOT
less say $4m (At a guess $3m manufacture shortfall and $1m paid to AEE for loan)
Leaves $5.6m + $6m = $11.6m in bank
**Assume the remaining 35,000 drones over 12 months are pre sold to customers (no need for funds)

So you have at the end of 12 months

$11.6m in the bank
less 12 months of......
Marketing say $3m
Admin/Wages/Dev say $4m
Other/legals say $2m

So $2.6m in bank...

Revenue $30m
Costs $27m
EBITA = $3m
NPAT = $2m
x say 15 = market cap should be circa $30m by end of 12 months

** This all assumes the following

1. Split between AEE and IOT is correct
2. Costs are correct
3. Sales volume of Rova reaches 200+ sales per day for 12 month period
4. No other costs ongoing or new products to pay for

** IOT did say would be profitable at $25m for 10 months so does show they probably would be IF, and it's a big IF, they can meet those kind of sales targets.

** Please don't take my figures any other way other than absolute guesses at this point.

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Thanks for your calcs Warnie.
May not entirely agree with you but well thought out and presented.
I would say understated by way of income for this year but just an opinion as well.
Cheers

IOT Price at posting: 4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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