puntercant disagree with your logic BUT imo the market is saying...

punter
cant disagree with your logic BUT imo the market is saying something very very different
at todays price of 30c and assuming the deal settles on say 30/6/13 for 38c then a buy today would give a profit of 26.67% which when annualized is 106%pa
to me that sizable return is possible if and only if because there is very high risk...if there wasn't risk you wouldn't be expecting a return of >100%!
for the large buyers at 36c a month or so ago they have disappeared so maybe they too are getting worried
if you had a large holding like they have you wouldn't be able to sell and are imo trapped(as no buyers for a large parcel) and are just hoping it goes through
for smaller shareholders I suspect they are rushing for the exit door
for all shareholders I hope it goes through but if it doesn't than another SDL type share collapse will imo occur and a sp of 10c-15c couldn't be ruled out