I agree that the this deal is quite different from Sundance,...

I agree that the this deal is quite different from Sundance, particularly in size. However, the collapse of the Sundantce deal puts a question mark over all Chinese take overs at the moment. The change in leadership has altered the landscape in ways that are hard for outsiders to tell.

Having said that I think the probability is good that the deal will go through. There is a large risk premium because of the perceptions of increased risk as well as the (small but real) increased risk after the recent delay.
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