The day before they issued there downgrade on aio, look which company pops up in there value section. It is just so wrong. I will never listen to brokers again.
Credit Crunch to Credit Crisis: Is the End in Sight?
Investors around the world have been scrambling to slash their forecasts of
economic growth as the turmoil in financial markets spreads rapidly to the “real”
economy: from Wall Street to Main Street. This has prompted unprecedented
action from monetary and fiscal authorities globally in the midst of a share market
slump. For equity markets, the battle continues: policy makers and valuation on
one side versus earnings fears and forced sellers on the other.
With global GDP numbers being revised down, corporate earnings are also being
revised downwards. From the peak of corporate earnings in October 2007, global
reported earnings have fallen 10%. In a typical earnings downturn, earnings fall
25% from peak to trough.
But despite the earnings downgrades, share prices have moved ahead of
fundamentals. We estimate the Australian market is pricing in an earnings
decline of -30% over the next 12 months.
In other words, expectations of very weak earnings – i.e. a recession level
downturn or more – are already in equity prices.
We discuss these themes in this month’s edition of the Private Client Portfolio
Strategist.
Private Client Stock Suggestions
Core/Long
Term
Growth Income Value
ASX Consolidated Media Commonwealth Bank Asciano Group
Cochlear Incitec Pivot Coca-Cola Amatil Arrow Energy
CSL Leighton Holdings Insurance Australia Harvey Norman
QBE Insurance Metcash Spark Infrastructure James Hardie
Santos Newcrest Mining St. George Bank OneSteel
Toll Holdings OZ Minerals Suncorp Metway Wesfarmers
Westpac Banking Sonic Healthcare Tatts Group
Westfield Group Telstra Corporation
Woodside
Woolworths
Source: Citi Smith Barney Research Services Group, changes in bold, stock under A$1bn market cap in italics.
Citigroup Global Markets Limited is advising BHP Billiton Ltd in relation to the proposed
takeover of RIO Tinto Ltd. As such we are restricted from commenting on both compa
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