hobojoSix months time?That is pretty much a lifetime away for us...

hobojo

Six months time?

That is pretty much a lifetime away for us on hotcopper.

You will be long gone with most of your loot intact before GFC2 hits us. There will be plenty of FA and TA warnings along the way.

Anyone for a major bank failure? Will Citibank finally admit it is insolvent or will the US govt just give it some more dough indirectly. Did the Japanese banks collapse? No they just got smaller in relative terms post 1990. The same will happen in the US and much of Europe. They will not stand for another systemic fanancial failure. So expect zombie banks to continue for 10-15 years as they are recapitalised via higher interest rates by those that can still pay (just like Westapc here in the 1990s).

In the meantime all that money printing going on. Where and when will it end? Who will accept the USD?, the EUR?, the YEN, YUAN?, GBP? YOUNAMEIT? Gold has to look good in relative terms, as will many other assets I think.

ZERO govt interest rates to continue in major countries - very positive for asset prices.

Asset boom will last a fair while yet. Some blow off next year if more housing loans, commercial loans and personal loans in the US get into trouble. But the govt has in part also solved this one. Just changed the banking accounting rules so as not to recognise them as bad loans - or they just transfer them to the Fed. All will be OK, I suspect.

In the meantime, China cannot afford to slow down, and will keep buying up real assets - as will India, Arabs, Brazil etc.

So I reckon I will wait to see clear signals before I start selling down my shares. Who knows, maybe I will be vomiting next year, like ctindale says, or maybe I will be enjoying the spoils of my risk taking.

loki (a potential vomiting excessive risk taker)