CBA had been a great long term investment, that is a given and...

CBA had been a great long term investment, that is a given and congrats to those that have bought, held and DRPed

But IMO at 22x EPS, the state of the Australian economy and mortgage holders stress, is this 22xEPS deserved now

Why is it at the current valuations, well there are a few reasons that come to my mind

First is those that have bought and held and DRPed, they are not selling as they say, why would they,
this reduces the turnover of the shares outstanding

CBA has been a very successful bank, price has done well, and its shareprice has corresponded to this
success, its share price increases lead to more share price increases, everyone now has to hold CBA

CBA has become a proxy for the Australian market for overseas investors

CBA has been buying back their own shares again reducing the shares outstanding

I am sure there are other reasons for this, but these reasons alone are reasons enough for the outperformance of its SP

It is now around 30% to 40% "dearer" than the other 3 big Australian banks, which are also facing mortgage holders stress

If TSHTF in the economy and property markets I don't believe that the Aust government and reserve bank will bail out the
big 4, IMO interest rates are not going back below 3% RBA rate, so borrowers will be still looking at 5% plus borrowing rate
can borrowers handle 5% plus rates for a long term, most can, many cannot

The Australian economy is in worse shape than most think IMO, I am a courier and also work in the gig economy
a bit, I see things and talk to a lot of average people, things have come off the boil and slowed down a fair bit IMO

Anyway, shorted CBA today at $132.95 and bought same value of ANZ at $29.72

This is just my opinion only, if I held CBA from the float, and had a big CGT issue and lived off the divvy, not
sure I would sell, but I didn't, so this is just a gamble and certainly not investment advise

cheers