IMO, you can't make money from hopes and dreams. At the end of the day, the numbers matter. DC2's numbers, both financial and operational, have been nothing but short of expectations/what the Board has sold to the market/investors. The company overspent vs prospectus budget and underdelivered/missed prospectus forecast. In my opinion, once you lose the market's trust, you're done.
I think tech stocks will struggle this year due to the prospect of interest rate hikes, especially the not profitable tech stocks that can't justify the valuation with higher discount rate to the DCF model. DC2 shares will be under the pump due to 3 main technical reasons (other than financials):
- We are only a few months away from the tax loss selling season. I stick my neck out and say there are a lot of shareholders with tax losses here.
- There are 22.3m shares to be released from escrow in Oct 2022 (24 months escrowed from the IPO date). These are all seed shareholders who I'm sure got in at a much lower price point than the IPO price. How many of them will take their profit and go? Who knows, but the market will sell off the stock just in case. This stock 30d average volume is 200k shares at max. 22.3m/200k = 111.5 trading days to cover. I'll let you think about that number.
- Refer to my comment in the half yearly accounts post: I expect another capital raise in the next 6 months. DC2 will probably be one of the few companies to raise capital every year since IPO. At the current price of 12 cents, they will have to raise below 10c while diluting the current shareholders.
Just my 2 cents.
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