it all depends on the US markets ad the monolines
if your an ANZ investor either short or long you should also be a monoline follower, in particular Ambac and MBIA
IMO it will over shoot to the downside
Buy n Hold has made the point a number of times the losses will be written back and to some extent I think that argument will be key and I acknowledge it
this happened in 92 yields went to zero then there was an almighty bounce
my view is it could get down to 10-12 but could be back around 17 inside 18 mths
Im sitting on the sidelines at the moment, wait and see is the game at the moment
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