The government has manipulated the housing sector to save the banks. This sector will fail in due course as it has in every other country and huge losses will flow on to the banks who lent on overvalued security.
Lots of credit card debt will fail too as will Motor vehicle finance. MV finance in the process now.
Once this is out of the way, we can look for a bottom. It will take 12 months or more. Expect major falls in the housing sector once the stimulus package looses impact after Christmas. Further government stimulus, if any, will prolong the process and waste taxpayers funds. You can not solve private debt with government debt. Debt is the problem. Saving is the solution. It will take time.
IF (and its a big IF) China can hold together, we may have seen the bottom in the Minerals sector. I don't expect any surge forward for years though. Just bouncing along the bottom.
After 10 years of living on credit there are lots of debts to be paid off. This will cut consumption growth and finally be seen in savings. Then and only then we will have real values and careful productive growth will follow.
