Is USA product launch the big turning point for CCO?, page-2

Hey Jonromer, great thread. CCO’s U.S. push is a juicy pivot to chew on. They’re on track for that April 2025 product launch, rolling out new RTDs online via Amazon and Walmart.com, straight from their H1 FY25 playbook. That 44% demand surge on Amazon USA is already lighting up, and kava’s popping off in California and Florida, where the wellness crowd’s primed. The U.S. market’s a monster, 340 million strong, absolutely dwarfing Australia’s 26 million. If CCO can remix their Aussie wins, like snagging Coles shelf space and hitting $16k daily e-commerce last May, this could be massive.

Let’s zoom in on that 340 million, though. That’s the full count, babies, kids, retirees included, and most of them aren’t kava candidates. Toddlers won’t be downing calm shots, and the elderly might not care either, so we’re likely talking 100-150 million adults as the real pool. Still a colossal opportunity, and CCO’s noble kava, with its stress-melting, sleep-boosting kick, could snag the overworked, the restless, and the fitness buffs from coast to coast. Walmart’s online muscle and Amazon’s Prime reach give them a crack at scale Australia can’t dream of, potentially juicing that $600k monthly revenue into millions if they break through.

Here’s the catch: nailing it means wrestling some giants. Amazon’s fees are steep, sellers fork over 15% per sale, plus Fulfillment by Amazon costs if they opt in, which can tack on $3-5 per unit for a lightweight RTD, chewing up 20-30% of margins before shipping even starts. That’s tightened since their 2024 fee bumps, so CCO’s got to price sharp or bleed cash. Walmart.com’s no picnic either, they demand prices 10-15% below rivals and take a 15% commission, plus their restocking rules are brutal, if stock lags, you’re stuck with returns or penalties. I’ve dug into this, Walmart’s 2024 seller crackdown and Amazon’s fee grind are real hurdles, CCO needs flawless logistics to survive.

Then there’s the competition. Krave Kava’s a player to watch, they’re a U.S.-based chain with bars in North Carolina, like Raleigh and Carrboro, slinging kava shots and teas since at least 2023. They’ve got a loyal vibe, pushing exotic roots and a social lounge feel, and they’re expanding, tapping local buzz in the southeast. Others like Leilo and Botanic Tonics are in the RTD game too, Leilo’s canned kava’s been on Amazon since 2022, pitching a sweeter, newbie-friendly sip, while Botanic Tonics blends kava with feel-good herbs, targeting the L.A. wellness set. CCO’s edge is its noble kava purity from Fiji, less crowded than CBD or energy drinks, and those manufacturing upgrades keep supply steady, but they’ll need to outshine Krave’s grassroots pull and the RTD crowd’s slick branding.

How big can it get? If they ace execution, think Aussie growth on steroids, 100% share spike in ‘24 could balloon to 5-10x market cap if they snag even 1% of the U.S. wellness scene. I’m leaning bullish, their product’s legit, demand’s brewing, but it’s all about sticking the landing.