QOL queensland ores limited

is wolfram profitable the answer is no, page-29

  1. 145 Posts.
    "Option A)
    Go and put $33 million into a bank @ 7.5 % for 10 years.

    Option B)
    Go and put $33 million into building Wolfram after 10 years see what you get using a discount rate of 7.5 %"

    This guy clearly doesn't grasp the concept of time.

    Value = discounted FUTURE cashflows. What negative cashflows do you see occuring in the future (assuming 4 year mine life) at WC other than opex?

    At the end of the day if this guy calculated a negative NPV and sold on that basis it is his problem. Anyone else who thinks the project will not be profitable should explain why. Even this guy said it would make EBIT of $7mill per year. So as an investor you have to ask yourself this:

    If the earnings (say $7mill per year) from this project will not be sufficient to recoup the sunk capex should the mine be closed and the EBIT of $7mill per year for the next 4 years foregone?

    If you answered yes then get out of the stock market.

    Another way of looking at it is this: say I was a potential buyer of WC. I would value the project at the discounted future cashflows i.e. EBIT $7mill per year for 4 years discounted back to today. This is the value of the mine to a potential buyer and this is the value of the mine to the company. Sunk capex means squat. I really don't know why it is so hard for this guy to grasp it. Examples with putting money in the bank is cuckooland stuff.
 
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