Hi Benaut,
I think that it might help to add some context to your 'negatives':
1. Many have pointed out that it unlikely the FAR will go all the way down the production route, but IF we did, then $800m capex would be invested with reasonable expectations of substantial returns. The capital would be raised on a quality prospectus for a blue chip project. You are no longer in the specie league.
2. The Senegal dilution is no shock. It's expected (on any bullish view of the discovery) and factored in.
3. BEL may or may not even be required for declaration of commerciality. Preliminary appraisals do not support likelihood of a duster.
Cheers
Is worse case really that bad?, page-4
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