It is important to have both pro and con views on a stock to bring up issues to consider.
However, it is the certainty of the con views that is most startling.
For example, this issue of the reserves - how could the figure of 9mm barrels be so confidently stated unless the poster is actually working for MAD with access to their reservoir data - or has this person gone to Houston to study the data. I understand that RBS and Wilson HTM have done this review and whilst there were debates about methodology they agreed with the numbers. Who to believe a poster with questionable data access or qualified people in large brokerages?
Gulf South have stated that MAD have exceeded their and their investors expectations with the wells being drilled under their funding program. These are current wells being drilled - why wouldn't this be a true statement as it can be verified.
There have been issues - the switch of all the rigs to close out contacts, the move into the Het limestone and the slow buildup of infrastructure.
MAD fell short on the execution front and they deserved to be and they were kicked on the ass. In this market failure to deliver is not an option.
Thus the debate is really about whether this fall in production is a structural issue or a shorter term operational stuff up. I think we are past the core of the problems and whilst the December quarter will not be startling given the poor start things will improve.
Congrats on making short money in the market - riding the tiger can be great fun till it isn't.
FDM Price at posting:
65.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
