The broker analyst reports should be reviewed with extreme caution. I note that the cashflow forecasts being generated by Morgans take gross production and multiply it by oil price to get gross revenue without deducting the 25% land owner royalty which grossly overstates cashflows and their target SP (by a lot more than 25% because the hit is coming off the top line rather than the net profit). I am not suggesting any kind of impropriety; I suspect it was an oversight. I do not believe that either broking house has undertaken independent technical analysis of the reserves - rather they have assumed that the type curves generated by the reserve consultant are correct, then each house has taken MAD management's publicly stated drilling targets, to generate forecast production profiles. This, in my opinion, is generating grossly overstated production profiles and cashflow forecasts given historical production issues which I have explained at length in previous posts. This is not simply downramping - I suggest you read the broker reports carefully in conjunction with the company's announcements and you will see what I mean. Bear in mind that Morgans is the house broker for this stock, they have generated significant fees raising capital for the company at each round (and their Chairman is Chairman of MAD and many of their staff have disclosed positions in the stock) which, rightly or wrongly, disincentivises them from generating their own more conservative production and drilling profiles.
FDM Price at posting:
65.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
