Doesn't look good. That said, assume the 12-14% discount rate is dropped 200 basis points, suddenly that 50-55m hit to assets is covered plus some.
Also, the yeilds and survivability figures have been trending upwards as innovations are introduced and methods improved. Whether or not there is material legitimacy to that I'll leave to the people experienced in sandalwood plantation operations. See the trend? It's all fluff.. fluff that will be used to negotiate a price.
What it looks like to me is that due to the extremely slow pace of seedlings converting to cash, estimations are extremely subjective. I think the deciding factor is whether or not there is economic value in the trees and oil, not really what some model projects. In that binary view, I do think there is economic value there.
To me that leaves two realistic scenarios: 1) Buyers wait for QIN to go into distress to buy at a significant discount to NTA 2) A friendly buyout is arranged, in which case I don't see a deal ending too badly for QIN shareholders given how low the SP is relative to assets, operations and prospective markets.
QIN Price at posting:
$1.15 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
