Israel and Iran – it’s not “If” but “When”The USA and Israel’s...

Israel and Iran – it’s not “If” but “When”

The USA and Israel’s biggest concern about Iran is one of timing; when will the Iranians develop a nuclear capability, which could hit Israel and Europe. This has two components, 1) a nuclear warhead and 2) a missile delivery system.

Extraordinary and covert operations have been carried out to interfere with Iran’s nuclear program, including attempts to get Iranian nuclear scientists to defect, and – dare I speak plainly - possible attempts at kidnapping and assassination.

US President Obama has declared that Iran will not be allowed to have a nuclear weapons capability, but he is now tied up with elections. If Romney is elected as the new President, it may take time to come up to speed after the celebrations.

And as Time World notes - Here’s a little secret about the future of U.S. Iran policy, regardless of who wins the presidential election: direct talks between Washington and Tehran may be inevitable — notwithstanding the Obama Administration’s insistence, in response to media reports last weekend, that no such talks are currently planned or the denials by Iran that it wants to talk. The reason that the winner on Nov. 6 may face little alternative but to try direct talks with Iran for the first time since 1979, is quite simply that both President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney have made clear their desire to avoid taking the U.S. into a third elective war in a Muslim country in the space of a decade…..

The problem with the existing package of sanctions and talks is that Tehran is not seeing a sufficiently attractive offer — nor even a clearly defined set of steps required to change the dynamic, while Iran’s leaders have chosen to put their economy on a war footing to absorb the pain, as if they have no alternative. Asked in Tuesday’s debate what would constitute an acceptable deal, President Obama said “our goal is to get Iran to recognize it needs to give up its nuclear program and abide by the U.N. resolutions that have been in place.

That answer may have tracked with campaign requirements, but Iran won’t even negotiate on the basis of a demand that it “give up its nuclear program.” And the premise of the past five years of multilateral European-led negotiations has been a recognition that Tehran is not going to simply heed U.N. resolutions but may nonetheless be open to agreements that satisfy key international concerns about its program.

http://world.time.com/2012/10/23/whether-its-romney-or-obama-u-s-will-consider-direct-talks-with-iran/


However for Israel, it is not a question of “if” the Iranians succeed in developing a nuclear capability, but “when”?

While the US may desperately want to try further diplomacy, Israel may not be prepared to wait and will act when it feels time is running out. Also, Israel knows it holds a trump card, and if it acts first, the US will be forced to follow on and support it.

What will be the implications for the Middle East and the rest of the world if Israel attacks Iran, with the US falling into line in support?

Thorburn is right that there is the very real threat of oil rising in price.

I add “and world supply of oil could be interrupted”. We are dealing with fanatical regimes, who might even flood the Strait of Hormuz with oil, with the intention of disrupting East-West commerce.

Read Thorburn's post and thread “it's not gold but oil" under Economics. I debated whether to reply to his post or create a new thread.

Thorburn writes "The general consensus is that gold will rise soon but along with that there is the very real threat of oil rising in price.

Spare a thought to the widening conflict in the central Middle East. Unrest has spread to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordon and Iraq. The currency crisis looks to be possibly cracking the base of Iran.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the head of Iran's judiciary of protecting "certain individuals" from corruption charges in a letter published by the Iranian media. The public row suggests that the regime's unity may be crumbling under the weight of sanctions and deepening economic crisis, according to the New York Times."

Thorburn says more – read his post.

On Daniel Pipes blog, Pipes writes:
Oil Pipeline Bypasses the Strait of Hormuz
by Daniel Pipes
June 21, 2012

Abu Dhabi, one of the United Arab Emirates' seven member states, has prepared for the possibility of an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which about 17 percent of the world's energy passes; today marked the opening of the Habshan-Fujairah oil pipeline that carries its crude to another UAE state (in the Gulf or Strait of Oman. The gulf borders Pakistan and Iran on the north, Oman on the south, and the United Arab Emirates on the west).

Started in 2008, the 225-mile-long pipeline is four-feet in diameter, it cost about US$2.7 billion and it carries 600-700 thousand barrels per day with the goal of increasing that to 1.4 million or even 1.8 million barrels per day. Along with the pipeline, Abu Dhabi's government is building a US$3 billion, 200,000-barrel-a-day refinery at the pipeline's termination, Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.

Comment: Not only does the pipeline insure the export of Abu Dhabi's Murban blend crude, but it also protects it from hiked up insurance premiums in case of hostilities. This little-noticed news item is fraught with implications for the future of the energy market and for Gulf Cooperation Council relations with Iran. (June 21, 2012)


My Conclusion:

An uncertain future lies ahead of us, and that future is now.

The key is not US diplomacy but how Israel is thinking. I expect developments later in 2012, following the US election, or in 2013 at the latest. Israel will be expecting action from the US, and not just words. The US is between a rock and a hard place on this.

The only saving factor could be an immediate and complete collapse of the Iranian regime, a revolution by the Iranian people and the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability. Otherwise, Israel will see no alternative but to act.