Anyway, if you wake up on Saturday and see 50 reports of USA hitting stuff all throughout Iran, DON'T SHIT YOURSELF! That's the good timeline. 
Posted by: rert | Jun 20 2025 3:37 utc | 705
You may be 100% correct. However you analysis is flawed:
1) Of the 150 planes you mention, at the very least 1/3 or more are for support - tankers and cargo , plus electronic warfare ( which carry limited weapons). So the actual number of attack aircraft is likely more around 70.
2) They have already advertised they have move their stealth fighters there ( f22 and f35) but the problems with them are: the stealth fights have lower range, they can’t carry as much ordinance payload, and they aren’t really that stealthy anymore.
3) Iran has been game planning this for just as long the USA. All their good stuff is widely dispersed, well underground so very difficult to destroy, Iran are masters at deseptive warfare (hacking systems, decoys , etc). Plus they have the advantage of the minute the USA launches their blitz, Iran can send over hypersonics - which the US doesn’t have - to the locations where the US launched its attack, rendering them unusable. Or they could instead send them to Saudi capital, Turkey, Iraq - heck they are rumored to have iCBm, they might reach out and touch Paris or London for fun, they have nothing to lose at this point
4) you conveniently don’t mention the strait of Hormuz - they can shut that down at any time, even before USA launches there attack. They USA would have to change their plans, wouldn’t they?
5) oh, and they can also just hunker down and take the pounding and instead of chase the USA bombs and rockets do a massive savo at Israel. USA doesn’t have enough resources to attack Iran and defend Isreal, do they?
6) but the biggest treat of all is the simple fact Iran might already have some nukes and decide to use them on Isreal and USA bases in ME, which would cause a response from USA NATO which if that happened would most likely get Russia and China after USA as a preventative measure.
The wildcard is that Russia and China have both been too quiet and too polite- which should scare everyone. You know the real crazy worst case scenario? The minute this happens, China moves on Taiwan, NDK moves on South Korea, and Russia moves for the kill shot on Ukraine and also parts of Poland…..at that point the West would be so hopeless over extended they would either use nukes or sue for peace.
The entire point of my post is if the USA is really trying to do what you describe, they will likely be as successful as the Israel- which is to say not enough. Then why? There would be no second chances and then the US would end up missing some planes, destroyers, maybe a carrier and now try to to fight off Iran by themselves because Isreal is beaten down and so is NATO.
Posted by: drsmith | Jun 20 2025 4:12 utc
