Based on what experts are ready to share, the USA and Mossad do not know where the most important item is. Almost 1/2t of it. Bombing the facilities is all for show.
But as the Trump administration conducts its damage assessment, the critical question will be whether Iran’s program has been destroyed, or simply pushed into smaller, secret sites harder to find.
The answer depends significantly on what has happened to Iran’s 408kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity – close to the 90 per cent purity required for weapons.
“It comes down to the material and where it is,” said Richard Nephew, a former senior US official who worked on Iran in the Obama and Biden administrations. “On the basis of what we’ve seen at this point, we don’t know where the material is. We don’t have any real confidence that we’ve got the ability to get it any time soon.
“I think you would be foolish if you said that the program was delayed by anything more than a few months.”
