This war started by Israel has already backfired as it will have cemented Iran's determination to make nuclear weapons to defend itself from the likes or Israel and the US. Secondly it is depleting Israel's air defence resources needlessly. Thirdly, with the US now directly at war with Iran, the conflict is quite likely to last for years, impairing Israel's medium term security and its economy and stamping it internationally as a sovereign risk for investment.
Israel's three main goals are impossible to achieve:
Goal 1: Eliminate the nuclear capability of Iran. This is highly likely to be impossible to achieve even with US assistance, according to military experts.
Goal 2: Regime change There is no recorded example in history of a state causing regime change with an air campaign. Regime change requires boots on the ground and Iran has a population of 91 million while Israel's is 9.5 million. The US assisted Iraq in an 8 year war with Iran which achieved absolutely nothing. It ended in a stalemate with a total of 500,000 dead.
Goal 3: "Unconditional Surrender". Highly unlikely. See Goal 2 above.
Potential United States' Balls Up
Apart from cementing America's reputation as a totally untrustworthy state the US cannot afford to get involved in another "forever war". It would waste military resources and greatly hinder its ability to pivot to Asia with the goal of focussing as many resources as possible on containing China. The latter will be secretly hoping big time that the US will be bogged down in a forever war with Iran.
