The agreement, described Wednesday by U.S. officials, envisions a three-stage resolution of the conflict. First would be a six-week cease-fire, during which Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages, including all female prisoners, all men over 50 and all who are wounded. Israel would release hundreds of Palestinians from its prisons and withdraw its troops from densely populated areas toward the eastern border of Gaza. Humanitarian aid would flow in, hospitals would be repaired, and crews would begin clearing the rubble.
The stumbling block has been the transition to, in which Hamas would release the male soldiers who remain as hostages and both sides would agree to a “permanent end to hostilities” with “a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.” Each side feared the other would use the initial pause to rearm and return to battle. And Israel wanted to make sure it achieved its primary goal of blocking Hamas from ruling Gaza again.
The breakthrough came recently, when Hamas relented on its demand for a written guarantee on a permanent end to the fighting. Instead, it accepted the reassuring language of a U.N. Security Council resolution, passed last month, affirming the U.S.-negotiated deal. Here’s the key passage: “If the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue,” the U.N. resolution says. American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators would “work to ensure negotiations keep going until all the agreements are reached and phase two is able to begin.”
Israel and Hamas have both signaled their acceptance of an “interim governance” plan that would begin with Phase 2, in which neither Hamas nor Israel would rule Gaza. Security would be provided by a force trained by the United States and backed by moderate Arab allies, drawn from a core group of about 2,500 supporters of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza who have already been vetted by Israel. Hamas has told mediators that it is “prepared to relinquish authority to the interim governance arrangement,” a U.S. official said.
As security expands in postwar Gaza, the peace plan envisions a third phase, with what the U.N. resolution describes as a “multi-year reconstruction plan.”
As U.S. mediators moved closer to finalizing this deal, they got crucial help from their diplomatic partners, Qatar and Egypt. To pressure Hamas, Qatar told the group’s representatives they could not remain in Doha if they rejected the pact. Egypt provided last-minute help by accepting an innovative U.S. proposal to block any new tunnels across the border between Egypt and Gaza after Israel withdraws its troops.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has emerged as a key contact in the negotiations, issued a statement Wednesday noting “progress … with Egypt” toward a plan “that will stop smuggling attempts and will cut off potential supplies for Hamas.”
If the cease-fire deal is clinched, it will open the way for two other major changes in the Middle East landscape — involving Lebanon and Saudi Arabia — that could reduce the danger of a broader war.
