There is a lot of chatter and garbage floating on the internet regarding Iran’s vow to strike back at Israel for killing Ismail Haniyeh, the Chief Hamas negotiator, in Tehran this week. Airlines are cancelling flights in and out of Israel, Lebanon and Iran. The US is moving a 12-ship navy flotilla to the Med and ferrying combat jets to friendly airfields. I am sure there are some frantic behind-the-scenes attempts to get negotiations going or to persuade Iran to back down. I do not think that Iran and Hezbollah are bluffing. I think they fully intend to deliver a serious blow to Israel’s military and infrastructure. The big unknown is whether Israel, with the backing of the US and Europe, can defang the attack.
News broke tonight that the Commander of CENTCOM — who normally is based in Tampa, Florida at MacDill Air Force Base — arrived at the Headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. This is just one more indicator that something ugly is in the works.
As the violence and rhetoric was escalating in the Middle East, there was a large swap of persons, most suspected or openly identified as intelligence assets. I was fascinated in particular by Mr. Paul Whelan. He was portrayed in the US media as just some poor former member of the US Marine Corps who was arrested for no good reason while attending a wedding in Russia in 2018. But then I looked into his story. Here are the uncomfortable facts courtesy of Wikipedia:
After a court-martial conviction in January 2008 on multiple counts “related to larceny“, he was sentenced to 60 days restriction, reduction to pay grade E-4, and a bad conduct discharge.[9][10] The specific charges against him included “attempted larceny, three specifications of dereliction of duty, making a false official statement, wrongfully using another’s social security number, and ten specifications of making and uttering[a] checks without having sufficient funds in his account for payment.”[12]
From 2010 to 2016 Whelan was Kelly Services’ senior manager of global security and operations.
When arrested in Russia, Whelan was director of global security and investigations for BorgWarner, an international automotive parts manufacturer based in Michigan.[8][13][14] His work with Kelly Services and BorgWarner gave Whelan contacts with the U.S. intelligence community, federal agents and foreign embassies.
Why would a company with international operations hire a guy who got booted from the Marine Corps with a dishonorable discharge for bad conduct (e.g., attempted larceny and check kiting) and put him in charge of “global security and investigations?” Does that make sense to anyone?
The Russians allege that he was caught receiving classified material from a Russian intelligence officer. I don’t know if he was operating under the direction of the CIA or just trying to put together a new grift, given his prior record. While it is unlikely that the CIA would have hired him as a case officer or even a non-official cover officer, that does not rule out the possibility that the CIA had a “business” relationship with him. It is not unusual for the Agency to “make friends” with American businessmen who are traveling to areas like Russia and request their help in getting information. I suspect there is a lot more to this story.
When it comes to spying, most Americans get way too emotionally involved and are unable to step back and try to do an objective assessment of what is really transpiring. Most of the Western media portrayed the Russians released as incorrigible criminals while praising the American prisoners as glistening patriots and heroes. You needed a pair of hip-high waders to tread through all the bullshit that was flowing over the airways. Trading spies-for-spies is not new. I guess the only twist in this current release is that the Biden Administration proudly insisted — Biden in particular — that no American talked to Putin.
Americans need to dispense with the nonsense that we only arrest bad guys who are doing bad things. Tell that to all of the January 6 prisoners who stand accused of insurrection for daring to walk into the U.S. Capitol after being invited inside by Capitol Hill police. Based on my own experience, the Russian security services are not going to hunt you down and grab you if you are behaving like a normal guest — i.e., visiting tourist sites and having friendly conversations with the locals.
We did have one mystery cleared up with the prisoner release. I was wondering if Biden was going to use the event as a springboard to build Kamala’s foreign policy cred by giving her credit for helping negotiate the release. Nope, true to form, Biden took full credit even though he had nothing to do with the actual negotiations. That reportedly was handled by CIA Director Bill Burns.
I had a chat yesterday (Friday) with Danny Ayoubi who hosts the podcast, Capital Cosm. Here it is.
