israeli intel 'exaggerated' iraq wmds

Israeli intel 'exaggerated' Iraq WMDs
From correspondents in Jerusalem
05dec03
ISRAELI intelligence overplayed the threat posed by Iraq and reinforced an assumption by American and British counterparts that Saddam Hussein had large caches of weapons of mass destruction, a retired Israeli general said today, after studying the run-up to the US-led invasion of Iraq. The Israeli assessment may have been coloured by politics, including a desire to see Saddam Hussein toppled, said Shlomo Brom, once a senior Israeli military intelligence officer and now a researcher with Israel's top strategic think tank.
Brom stopped short of accusing intelligence officials of intentionally misleading Britain and the United States.

However, his charges could undermine the reputation of Israeli intelligence, up to now one of the most respected services in the world, and weaken Israeli persuasiveness, including current warnings that Iran is very close to obtaining nuclear weapons. The Israeli military declined comment, while other experts said Brom was exaggerating. Though no weapons of mass destruction have been found, US and British policymakers are sticking by their assessments that Saddam's regime possessed the weapons and threatened world peace. Public debate continues in both countries over the claims.

In a 13 page article in Strategic Assessment, a publication of the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, Brom said weapons of mass destruction would probably not be found in significant quantities in Iraq. He said Israeli intelligence overplayed the potential danger before the war. Based on intelligence warnings that a US-led invasion could trigger an Iraqi missile attack on Israel, possibly with chemical or biological weapons, the Israeli military ordered citizens to update their gas mask kits. As the war began, the military told Israelis to open the kits in preparation for an imminent attack and carry the bulky masks with them everywhere. Israelis largely ignored the order, and even Cabinet ministers were seen in public without the kits. In the end, Iraq did not fire missiles at Israel. In the 1991 war, Saddam's forces fired 39 Scud missiles at Israel. All had conventional warheads, causing considerable damage but few casualties.

Brom said in an interview today that "Israeli intelligence was a full partner with the United States and Britain in developing a false picture of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction capability". He said Israeli intelligence "badly overestimated the Iraqi threat to Israel and reinforced the American and British belief that the weapons existed". Brom said the Israeli assessment might have been influenced by politics.

"Israel has no reason to regret the outcome of the war in Iraq," he wrote, noting that Saddam was an implacable enemy who backed violent Palestinian groups and paid millions to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers.

Brom ended his 25 year military career in 1998. Career officers in Israel traditionally maintain close ties with military colleagues after their retirement.
Yossi Sarid, an opposition member of parliament, demanded an inquiry.

"If political factors interfere with intelligence assessments, heaven help us. That is the greatest danger," he told Israel Radio, adding that Israel's credibility could suffer. "When we present dire information about Iran's arming itself with nuclear weapons, who's going to take us seriously? They can say, 'You exaggerated about Iraq, too'," Sarid said. Others felt Brom overstated the case.

Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee said there was a failure by all Western intelligence agencies in assessing the Iraq threat correctly, but that "to say that Israel is the prime mover in this is extremely farfetched".

Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat research centre at Bar-Illan University near Tel Aviv, rejected Brom's findings. He accused Brom of trying to bolster Israeli doves who believe Israel is facing no credible external threats. "Intelligence has to warn of the worst-case scenario," Inbar said. He also questioned Brom's conclusion that there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq: "They haven't found Saddam, either, but does that mean there was no Saddam Hussein?"