Israelis trying to start ww3, page-140

Quick summary; See where I am wrong...

Israel can kick the guts out of HEzbollah, but had been playing nice cause they were camped out in Lebanons'front yard.
Now, they seem to be amping up, after Hezbollah chuck a few bricks through their windows. Lebanon makes angry noises, but is actually barely holding their country together so Israel can kick their butts too.

Egypt has been playing the Hamas/Israel mediator role, while profiting - turns out Egypt economy is kinda shot too, so they can't handle another war getting their butts kicked.

The IDF could probably fight either Egypt or Hez/Lebanon at the same time as Gaza and win.
All three at the same time is pushing it.

Now, Iran wants to start chucking nukes.

THAT levels things up.

Israel basically now needs to bluff or fold. If they bluff and start to escalate even further, we are 3 mins to midnight, cause Iran is crazy.

If they fold, things go back, Hamas claims a victory they never won, and Hezbollah gets to chant a lot. It is a scenario that politically Israels leaders find unpalatable. Losing face means losing the next election, and THAT is bad.

So - Israels next move... Snap kick Hezbollah in a massive attack - completely erase their main units, encroaching on Lebanese territory for 2-3 days, then withdraw rapidly. Shore up defences and say to Egypt - "You're next!"

Then cease all advances in Gaza, other than sealing it off.

Wait for Iran to launch (which they will undoubtedly do) and meet that with all the fire and fury they can muster, with air superiority. Ignore any moves from Lebanon, as they will try to oppotunistically jump in as well. Iran attracts the ire of the international community, and Shazam, we finally see Iran V. the World. Tac nukes deployed by both sides, Gaza wiped flat, large sections of it and Israel become uninhabitable, no one wants Arab refugees and the problem is solved for about 60yrs.

A chunk of fiction mixed with fantasy, but it is actually a scenario plotted out some decades ago..