Hi Guys
I thought the sp was getting a bit ahead of itself, until I run a few quick figures.
The market is definately forward pricing the stuff it knows about, but that hasn't been confirmed as yet. i.e. The AU merchant update along with some EMA revenue, and those other expansion plans and milestones other posters have previously just mentioned.
From
@Perok's post last night - Patto's reckons those first 10 au merchants contracted 6 wks back have a combined GTPV of 5 billion or 16.66% of the 30 bln up for grabs. If you do the same splits JK mentioned in his interview recently with Alan Kohler, isx contracts 25% of their GTPV to start = 1.25 bln. The 1.25 bln make sense, it's only c.100 mln for each contract, from 10 big business that doable. (wasn't it mentioned the first 10 were well known names in the industry)
1.25 bln, at say 50 bps gross profit for not having our own teir 1 in AU up and running yet. That's a good 6 million revenue pa, and doubling that to 12 million when isx own teir 1 is happening, probably sometime late cy 19 / early 20.
The 10.7 mln EBIT as stated in the forecast, plus say 2/3 of the 6 mln above, being it's late in the year, say 4 mln - Rounded off to say 15 mln total EBIT is possibly around were we are at today at a guess.
And that 15 mln is without any aditional EMA figures ( 4 mln was quoted in the above forecast)
Now the numbers
15 mln x 40 pe / 1.1 bln = 55 cps
Factor in some EMA, already confirmed 400 mln of contracts at the 2018 agm, so lets say 800 mln now. Thats an extra 4 mln at 100bps not factored.
4 mln x 40 pe / 1.1 bln = 14.5 cps
55 + 14.5 cps = 69.5 cps - Spot on around were we are at today.
The 70 cps is not an over the top valuation of isx today. The market gets it right once again.
Add in some extra pe into the mix to bring it up to Paypal stats of 60x as JK quoted in the Alan Kohler interview, and the sp target becomes 83.5 cps
Isx's sp range of 70 cent to 83.5 cent sp is neutral for what we know today.
Naturally, those figures are ever changing, with every new material announcement the company releases.
All the Best
Tradealot
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