OK - so we don't like Guggenheim (or Einhorn)... How about...

OK - so we don't like Guggenheim (or Einhorn)...

How about Oaktree Capital (yes VH they do distressed debt and have a fund all set to jump into E&P apparently).

Howard Marks penned this article (and book) - I thought it was really good - about the market and the thinking of those in it.

http://www.oaktreecapital.com/memo.aspx

Bit of a discussion on "First Level thinkers and Second Level thinkers".... for example

"A good example can be seen in the hypothetical newspaper contest John Maynard Keynes wrote about in 1936. Readers would be shown 100 photos and asked to choose the six prettiest girls, with prizes going to the readers who chose the girls readers voted for most often. Naive entrants would try to win by picking the prettiest girls. But note that the contest would reward the readers who chose not the prettiest girls, but the most popular. Thus the road to winning would lie not in figuring out which were the prettiest, but in predicting which girls the average entrant would consider prettiest. Clearly, to do so, the winner would have to be a second-level thinker. (The first-level thinker wouldn’t even recognize the difference.) "

It's a good read, especially if you put yourself into those being questions posed. What would a first level thinker put out as reasoning to go long (or short) SSN. What would a second level thinker dig down too?

"What’s clear to the broad consensus of investors is almost always wrong."

I wonder if two wrongs make a right in this world?

Hope y'all enjoy the read..