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Haha, its good to be positive.

Origin are trying to diversify their operations with this play. They call themselves an oil and gas company, but they are really just a gas company. Their expertise are in Australian gas. We have seen what happens when Australian gas companies operate outside Australia. They hit dusters like Woodside did offshore Kenya. I wouldn't be too confident with them hitting anything at the moment. Their focus is squarely on CSG development and supplying gas to the domestic market.

The sovereign risk is greatly increased by the fact the tenement is offshore Kenya, which is next to Somalia. Somalia being the ungoverned nation and home of the modern day pirates. Kenya is also one of the most corrupt countries in the world. If Origin was to pull the pin at any moment I would not be surprised.

Its quite concerning that Origin renegotiated and decided not to commit to a well and free carry PCL. They are now doing a 3D instead and are free carrying them through that. Thats $40-50 million vs $10 million. Clearly the risk borne by Origin is very significant, especially given where they are operating.

If you want any more info on PCL developments call up Eddie Myers. He was a very honest Company Secretary. Clearly PCL are having a lot of trouble with their projects and are unaware of what is occuring in their JVs on all fronts. The fact he told the company didn't know anything about Chevron potentially being part of their EP424 JV was disappointing, when it is stated on Carnarvon Ltds website. This is truly a LT hold and i personally wouldn't pay more than $0.03 per share for the risk your taking on. Glad i got in nice and early.