it feels like poker, page-2

Agree..

In poker....no one knows what card is going to be turned over..?

The only info you have is what cards have been turned over in front of u..plus...if u can count cards...u should know what cards are left in the deck....

You can look at the faces of the other players trying to workout who is bluffing...and got nothing...

Then there is that gut feel......do u feel lucky..?

In the Blackbird drill...we know that 5th of March is the expected day we should reach TD....we know that mud logs have shown if there is oil....

We know that the drill rig will move on quicker if no oil is found....

If u can count cards.....then u can count days...
Therefore if the drill rid is still on location shortly after the 5th March....then the cards are ok and we can hit hoping for a black ace....

If u can look at the faces of other poker players to workout if they feel lucky....then u can look at the market trades since the game started ......drilling..

The share price has decreased so the other players don't feel lucky....some have folded thinking its a duster....

The hand I hold looks like I will hit until 6th March and ask the dealer if the rig is still drilling in its current location....if so call for the cards...if the rig has left then.....

I fold....
IMO