It has started - will it continue?

Hi all,

There is often discussion, and, I believe confusion about the difference between SP performance – meaning is the thing going up or down and possibly is it above what you paid for it or are you under water – and, company or business performance – which is a whole different kettle of fish. This has been covered ad nauseam – but, is always pertinent – particularly in a stock like Alexium – tight register – lots of stock held by larger holders – who are ‘holders’ – meaning, ‘they ain’t letting go’.

Another thing which needs to be noted by investors – particularly small investors – say with holdings of 5, 10, 20, 50 k of stock – is that they are in a very different game to what a holder with say 5 million shares is.

It may be obvious to some – but, not all – but, when you have or want a large holding ----- on market in AJX is really difficult to acquire – look at the depth for ref. And see just how you would go.

So, why bring it up again atm.?

Because right now – Alexium is at a hinge point ------------- for all of us - large and small.

The business is rock solid -------------- but, yes, there are risks – there always are – but, they aren’t often the motherhood statement risks you often find written in brokers reports – the risks are more detailed and subtle than that. Also – some of the risks are of the size that could really dent a company – but, thankfully most – are risks that are only likely to slow things up a bit and just hamper the way ahead timewise for a while.

I don’t see a problem discussing either risks or negative views ----------- as long as there is some substance – not just brainless dribble without any analysis or logical thought to not necessarily back it up – but, to put out to air to see why a person might have concerns. Eg. Saying – a company is just crap because the SP is dropping – isn’t even up to a 5 year old kids level of thought – because even kids know that share prices go up one day and down the next ------------ a discussion on why would be ok – but, a general swipe just wastes ink.

Now – most know my views on charting – and, by now most would have read that I believe that charts do tell us some things – and, one of those things often (not always, but often) – is that when a stock gains interest from parties that were otherwise not interested (interested meaning they are buying and/or selling) – and that interest is growing --------------- the daily bars can be seen to grow as the stock ascends (in AJX case atm).

Now, this is important – because it often – and, in this case does – indicate a move from small investors and larger private investors just moving their portfolios around a little ------------- to institutional investors – moving the stock around (probably with some assistance from larger privates as well).

This is a very important stage – because this point --- IF it is the beginning of a continual stream of interest in a stock – normally propels a stock very strongly north for an extended period – (meaning months – perhaps years).

Now – what we have seen in the last 2 weeks ------------ the questions are – is this the start of this – and, will it continue?

If we combine talk of what we have heard so far of the CR and activity post that ---------- and, I add in what I got from Nick this morning – well, it seems quite definite that the institutions are buying – freely – and, they are buying at any price point that we have seen in the last fortnight. This is from Nick in response to a question from me on his comments on institutional desires from a few months back –


“All Instos are happy. They are mopping up anything that's being sold as well.”


So – to me, I would have to think that the interest so far ------------ (so far), is clear – on market. Now – as can be seen by the postings on broker data – there is a lot of churn, but, little net movement – and, the reason for that is that there is just not the volume available to be able to come in and scoop out say 5 million shares or 10 million shares in one hit --------- again, this is very important for small investors to understand. The churn uses mechanisms to make money on the way – perhaps contain the price if possible – but, to take off the table when possible any stock – without driving the price into the stratosphere – sort of controlled buying.

What none of this tells us is -------------- will it continue?

Now – Nick, unlike most of us here who are rather contained – can be, sometimes, on the odd occasion, a little more positive than perhaps the facts allow for. Why? Because it’s his baby, and he really loves it – lives for it – from first eyes open in the morning until eyes closed very late at night ---------- but, often he is absolutely spot on – and sometimes he sees things a bit different to us.

What he said this morning is extraordinary --------------- IF his take on it is correct exactly. If it is not – well, we shall see – whichever way it is – we shall, IMO – continue to see it in the daily bars. This is what he said –


“ There was a ********** UN delegation of brokers and Instos from Aus that visited the plant. They finally got it when they physically saw it!” (the stars are mine, of course).


Now – it’s the last bit that is important – if Nick is correct – and, they DID ‘get it’ ----------- then, from here on in –it is very possible – I would say probable that it’s game on – big time.


Personally, I believe that if anyone spends any time with Nick at all – it’s pretty hard not to ‘get it’ – but, institutions are a bit different – a. They often have concrete rules – and b. Once they set things in place – it is more policy like than say a small private investor, who might change their minds depending on the hour of day and what they see written on a screen in front of them. c. Unlike most of us - they are prepared to and can and do jump on a plane to South Carolina to see for themselves the facilities and people who work there - nothing is more reassuring than seeing the real thing.

What is also very very different atm – and, something that has not been discussed at length from my memory – is that this delegation spoken of has visited America just as we are about to change premises – to premises where the location is known and can be visited – and, is clearly obvious that Alexium is about to make a major gear change.

There is nothing more concrete bar a cheque in the mail than a physical look at the workings of things – and a clear visual look at concrete evidence of major expansion.


So – I will leave it for there atm and see what it opens up.

Have a great day all

Below is the chart for another look at the size of the bars – even for people who have no interest in charts – this bar size thing is important to know – because what it means is that 10 cent swings in a day may well become the norm as we move forward – in fact, IF we move forward in price and growth – it is a given – the bigger the bars means the bigger the swing – obvious – but often easy to forget when one is inside the day in question.

Additionally to all the above from Nick’s comms. – is just more confirmation of what we all know – that contracts are coming – continuously and growing – we thought it would happen, now we are seeing it happen, and, we probably soon, will be able to trust it will happen reliably to a high percentage as we move down through the sales funnel. I did get the clear impression that we would hear about large individual ones – and that the stream is in flow. How many, don’t know and when? Don’t know. I wouldn't, however, go on annual vacation and be out of range and expect things to be the same when one returns